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Brazilian CDI (Certificado de Depósito Interbancário) Gains

Yearly Returns and Cumulative Performance (2010-2025)

Year	CDI Rate (%)	BRL Currency Loss vs GBP (%)	CDI Gain in BRL	Cumulative CDI Gain (%)	Net Gain/Loss vs GBP (%)	Cumulative CDI (BRL 1,000)	Cumulative vs GBP
2010	9.8	-	9.8%	9.8%	-	R$ 1,098	£366
2011	11.6	+10.0%	11.6%	22.5%	+22.8%	R$ 1,225	£449
2012	8.5	-18.5%	8.5%	32.9%	-12.2%	R$ 1,329	£395
2013	8.1	-9.4%	8.1%	43.7%	-1.7%	R$ 1,437	£388
2014	10.8	-14.3%	10.8%	59.2%	-4.5%	R$ 1,592	£371
2015	13.3	-45.0%	13.3%	80.4%	-37.7%	R$ 1,804	£231
2016	14.0	+11.5%	14.0%	105.7%	+27.1%	R$ 2,057	£294
2017	9.9	+7.7%	9.9%	126.1%	+18.9%	R$ 2,261	£349
2018	6.4	-6.3%	6.4%	140.6%	-0.2%	R$ 2,406	£348
2019	5.9	-5.9%	5.9%	154.8%	-0.3%	R$ 2,548	£347
2020	2.8	-25.9%	2.8%	161.9%	-24.5%	R$ 2,619	£262
2021	4.4	-5.9%	4.4%	173.5%	-1.8%	R$ 2,735	£257
2022	12.4	+9.7%	12.4%	207.4%	+23.6%	R$ 3,074	£318
2023	12.3	-4.6%	12.3%	245.2%	+7.2%	R$ 3,452	£341
2024	11.2	-16.2%	11.2%	283.9%	-6.8%	R$ 3,839	£318
2025*	14.6	+5.1%	14.6%	339.9%	+20.6%	R$ 4,399	£383

*2025 based on year-to-date rates

Summary Analysis (2010-2025)

CDI Performance in BRL Terms

Total CDI Return (2010-2025): 340% (R$ 1,000 → R$ 4,399)
Annualized CDI Return: ~10.1% per year
Best Year: 2016 (14.0%)
Worst Year: 2020 (2.8%)

CDI Performance vs GBP Depreciation

CDI Gain in BRL: +340%
BRL Depreciation vs GBP: -150%
Net Performance vs GBP: +4.6% (£366 → £383)
Real Return vs GBP: ~0.3% annually

Key Insights

The 2010 Starting Point Advantage: Starting from 2010 (a strong BRL period) rather than 2005 dramatically changes the investment outcome. The BRL was near its strongest point in 2010-2011, making subsequent depreciation more severe.

Critical Periods:

2011: Exceptional year with 22.8% returns in GBP terms due to currency appreciation + high CDI
2014-2015: Devastating period where even 13.3% CDI couldn't offset 45% currency collapse
2020: Double hit of low rates (2.8%) and severe currency weakness
2022-2025: Recent recovery in CDI rates helping to stabilize GBP-adjusted returns

Sobering Reality: Unlike the 2005 baseline which showed 56% gains in GBP terms, starting from 2010 reveals a much harsher truth:

15 years of CDI investments barely broke even in GBP terms
Total GBP return of just 4.6% over 15 years (0.3% annually)
This demonstrates the critical importance of entry timing in emerging market investments

Periods Where CDI Couldn't Keep Up:

2012-2015: Four consecutive years where currency losses exceeded CDI gains
2018-2021: Extended period of low rates unable to offset currency pressure
2024: Despite 11.2% CDI, 16.2% currency loss created net negative returns

The Harsh Lesson: For GBP-based investors, Brazilian CDI investments from 2010 essentially provided capital preservation rather than meaningful returns, highlighting the enormous impact of currency risk in emerging market fixed-income investments.

CDI rates are approximate yearly averages. The CDI typically tracks 99.5-100% of the SELIC rate. Currency conversion based on year-end exchange rates.

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